By David Hargreaves
The first half of 2025 has been a season of reckoning for real estate in Healdsburg and across Sonoma County. While casual observers focus on headlines about falling prices, the real story is more complex—full of both caution and opportunity for those who pay attention to the numbers.
Inventory Surges and Market Shifts
In Healdsburg, inventory has soared. Months of supply nearly doubled from 5.4 to 8.7 in just a year—a 61% increase signaling a dramatic shift from a seller’s market to one where buyers have more leverage than at any time since before the pandemic.
Sonoma County has also seen inventory climb. The county’s months of supply reached 3.4 by June, up from 2.2 a year ago. This is especially true at the higher end, where both areas are seeing double-digit months of inventory for homes priced above $2 million.
Healdsburg vs. Sonoma County: A Tale of Two Markets
In the sub-$2 million segment, Healdsburg’s median was $975,000—well above the county’s $810,000. But with higher prices comes a slower market: Healdsburg’s absorption rate is just 11.1% overall (only 7.1% for luxury homes), while the county’s is nearly triple at 29.8%.
The typical Healdsburg home over $2 million now takes 180 days to sell, compared to about 70 days in the rest of Sonoma County. While Healdsburg luxury sellers still achieve about 93.7% of their original list price, that’s only after months of negotiation and often price reductions.
The True Cost of Overpricing
Pricing matters, and overpricing costs sellers dearly. Consider this scenario: A home should be priced at $2 million. Tempted by optimism, the seller lists it at $2.2 million. Months pass with little interest. Eventually, the seller reduces the price by 13.2%—the average reduction for homes that don’t sell right away—bringing it down to $1.91 million. But buyers see a stale listing and come in with lower offers. The final sale price? Just $1.78 million.
Contrast that with a seller who prices correctly from day one at $2 million. That home attracts real interest, generates competition and ultimately sells for $1.94 million—$160,000 more than the overpricing strategy. The data is clear: Homes priced right from the start in Healdsburg sell for 97.2% of their original list price in 55 days; those that chase the market down sell for only 81.2% of their original list in 213 days.
Pricing requires balancing past comps, understanding buyers and demand, plus outside factors like out-of-town agents representing buyers who often overpay because they don’t understand pricing nuances.
Take 401 Piper St. It was a great product, so we priced it at the absolute top end of comparable properties and we found two buyers to bid up the price beyond expectations to sell it in a day. The buyers were out-of-town buyers looking for a retirement place—the perfect buyers.
Owner-Occupancy and Local Insight
This buyer profile is common in Healdsburg’s market. Only 44.8% of homes sold in the first half of 2025 were purchased as primary residences. Contrary to the local “second home narrative,” the most active non-owner occupied buyers aren’t San Franciscans or out-of-state investors—they’re Healdsburg locals. Residents who know the market best are still buying, showing confidence in the town’s long-term prospects.
There’s a clear divide between city and rural properties. In the City of Healdsburg, just over half of homes sold this year went to owner-occupants. In rural areas, that drops to just 25%, reflecting the enduring appeal of Healdsburg’s countryside for second homes.
Strategy and Realism Will Define Success
For buyers, the message is opportunity and choice. With inventory up and homes taking longer to sell, especially at the high end, there’s time to find the right property and negotiate.
For sellers, realism is essential. Success in 2025 will go to those who understand their segment, price accurately and are prepared for a market where buyers have regained some upper hand.
Healdsburg’s real estate market remains distinct within Sonoma County: more premium, more volatile and more nuanced. The numbers tell a story of transition, but also of enduring value. The lesson is clear: Listen to the data, price with precision and stay nimble. In this market, those who adapt will thrive.
David Hargreaves is a partner with bruingtonhargreaves / W Real Estate. Its weekly real estate newsletter, ‘Sonoma County Insider,’ is available at news.bruingtonhargreaves.com.
