A year ago, buying a home in Healdsburg for under $1 million meant moving fast and bidding hard. This fall, buyers can take their time.
That is the biggest change I see in the third-quarter numbers. For the teachers, winemakers, nurses and young families who want to live in the town they work in, it may be the best opening in years.
In the summer of 2025, Healdsburg homes under $1 million sold almost as fast as they were listed. Each month, more than half of the homes for sale in that price range went under contract. That’s what real estate people call an absorption rate of 54%. At that pace, the town had about two months of supply. Those who hesitated lost the house.
This summer the absorption rate was 24%, and supply stretched to almost five months. The number of homes for sale under $1 million rose from an average of 24 to 30. Sales in the quarter fell from 35 to 22. Homes are also taking longer to sell, 81 days on average against 69 a year ago.
None of that means values have fallen. Price per square foot, the cleanest measure we have, edged up about 2% to $560. The median sale in this range was around $794,000. Homes are holding their value. Buyers simply aren’t being rushed into paying over the odds for them.
What It Means for Buyers
For those who have been priced out or worn out by bidding wars, this is your window. With five months of supply, there is now opportunity to schedule a second visit and do full inspections. Prospective buyers can also negotiate on repairs or ask for a credit toward closing costs. Healdsburg sellers under $1 million accepted about 93% of their original asking price this summer.
The rest of Sonoma County is a different picture. Across the county, homes under $1 million are still selling at a 43% absorption rate, nearly twice Healdsburg’s. In the Sonoma area, which people usually compare with ours, entry-level sales rose 24%. The competition has moved elsewhere, and that opens the door here.
What It Means for Sellers
For sellers in this range, the message is simple, not alarming: Price to the market from day one. Homes that are priced right and presented well are still selling close to their final asking price. The ones that sit are usually the ones that started too high and had to chase the market down.
September brought the most encouraging numbers of the year. Twenty-eight Healdsburg homes went under contract, up from 19 a year earlier—a 47% increase. Countywide, September contracts were up 28%, the most in more than a year.
Homes between $1 million and $3 million, Healdsburg’s core move-up market, led the way. Seventeen went under contract in September, nearly three times the six of a year ago. Average days on market in that range fell from 82 to 66 over the quarter, and sellers got about 95% of their original list price, up from 93%.
I want to be careful not to read too much into it. Those contracts were signed before the latest rise in mortgage rates. In the few weeks since, we have felt some of the air come out of the market. I expect October to look quite different from September.
Higher rates tend to hit the under-$1 million market hardest, because those buyers rely most on financing. For the moment, I’d treat September as a high point, not the start of a trend. We will know more when October’s numbers come in.
The Bottom Line
One home I’ll be watching closely is 560 Matheson St. We are bringing it to market later this month at $2.395 million, right in the middle of the $1-3 million band that was so strong in September. How quickly it attracts buyers, and how close it sells to its asking price, will be an early test of whether that strength holds into October.
Healdsburg remains one of the most desirable small towns in California. Overall, price per square foot here rose about 5% this year, to more than $770, among the highest in Sonoma County. What has changed is who holds the leverage, and in the under-$1 million market, right now, it’s the buyer.
For those who have been waiting for a moment to buy in town, the leverage is with you this fall. Get financing lined up early, watch rates closely and don’t overreach. Sellers should price for the market we have today, not the one we had in September. I will be watching the next few months closely and will report back here.
David Hargreaves is co-founder of BruingtonHargreaves at W Real Estate in Healdsburg. Market data is from BAREIS MLS via TrendGraphix for July to September 2026, compared with the same period of 2025.
