Healdsburg’s real estate seeks the ‘Goldilocks’ zone
Those people tracking Healdsburg’s real estate market through simple headlines—median price down 5.5%, inventory up 21%—are missing the real story. What happened in 2025 wasn’t a single market cooling. It was three completely separate markets operating under one name, each following its own rules, its own trajectory, and offering dramatically different experiences for buyers and sellers.
After helping families navigate Wine Country real estate for over a decade, I can say this: 2025 was the year when understanding which market one’s in became more important than understanding the market itself.
The engine room stays hot
The sub-$1 million segment, representing nearly half of all Healdsburg sales, tells a story that contradicts the cooling narrative. Yes, the frenzied bidding wars disappeared. Days on market jumped 41%, from 57 to 80 days. But here’s what matters: This segment still absorbed one in three available homes each month, maintaining an absorption rate of 32% despite inventory surging 36%.
Think about that paradox. More homes came on the market, yet months of supply actually decreased from 4.7 to 4.0. This is the only segment in Healdsburg where supply months improved, revealing fundamentally strong demand that’s quietly powering the market while everyone focuses on luxury struggles.
Median prices held remarkably firm at $775,000—down just 1.8%. For families priced out during the pandemic boom, this segment offers something increasingly rare: Wine Country living in one of Sonoma County’s most desirable towns without crossing the $1 million threshold. The weekend-offer deadline chaos is over, but so is the waiting game that frustrated buyers for years.
The Goldilocks zone finds its balance
If 2025 had a clear winner, it’s the $1 million-to-$2 million segment. This market didn’t just survive—it thrived. Sales volume grew 19%, adding 10 actual transactions to reach 63 closed deals in a year when the overall market grew only 7%. Properties moved in 71 days, the fastest of any price range, while sellers achieved 95% of asking price.
This isn’t luck. This is where Healdsburg’s value proposition shines brightest. It offers authentic Wine Country living with walkable downtown access, properties appealing to both primary residents and second-home buyers, and a price point accessible to successful professionals without requiring ultra-high net worth. New listings declined 11% to just 81 properties, suggesting owners in this sweet spot aren’t feeling pressured to sell. Why would they? They’re holding assets in the market’s most desirable and liquid segment.
For Bay Area clients considering their Wine Country move, this Goldilocks zone offers the best risk-adjusted opportunity: proven resilience, solid liquidity and lifestyle benefits without the luxury market’s uncertainty.
Luxury segments face reality check
While Healdsburg’s mainstream market adapted and performed, luxury segments above $2 million struggled with a fundamental mismatch between owner expectations and buyer appetite. The $2 million-to-$3 million range saw identical transaction volume to 2024—14 sales—despite inventory climbing 32%. One home in seven sells each month, with 10.1 months of supply sitting on the market.
The ultra-luxury segment above $3 million experienced the market’s most dramatic correction. Median prices dropped 20% to $4.54 million—a decline exceeding $1.15 million. Price per square foot fell 16%. Yet even with these substantial price reductions, the segment sits on 18.8 months of inventory. That’s nearly two years of supply at current velocity, with just 6.7% of homes selling each month.
Here’s what these numbers mean in practice: Luxury properties moving today are those where sellers accepted new market realities. The emotional attachment to 2023-2024 peak values needs to give way to what buyers will actually pay today. Properties aggressively priced from the start are selling at 91% of asking in 94 days. Those chasing the market downward with multiple reductions are taking months longer while accepting even deeper discounts.
What it means going forward
The beauty of Healdsburg’s market structure is that 79% of all sales—146 of 185 transactions—happen under $2 million. These segments showed growing or stable transaction volumes, demonstrating that the market’s working parts are fundamentally sound. The challenge is concentrated in the luxury tier, where nearly two years of inventory suggests more price discovery lies ahead unless economic conditions shift dramatically.
For buyers, the takeaway is simple: Which market one’s in determines everything. Under $2 million offers stable values and adequate supply. Above $2 million presents opportunity for those who can capitalize on the current supply-demand imbalance.
For sellers, 2025 taught a clear lesson: Realistic pricing from day one beats wishful thinking every time. Homes priced right are selling at 91.8% of original list price, up from 90.1% in 2024. That improved pricing discipline kept days on market flat despite overall market softening—evidence that accepting current conditions leads to better outcomes than fighting them.
Healdsburg’s appeal remains unchanged. What changed is that different price segments now require different strategies, and success in 2026 will belong to those who understand these distinctions rather than waiting for market dynamics to return to some imagined normal.
David Hargreaves is a co-founder of bruingtonhargreaves / W Real Estate. Its weekly real estate newsletter, ‘Sonoma County Insider,’ is available at news.bruingtonhargreaves.com.
