Here are my predictions for what will win at the 98th Annual Academy Awards, plus what I think should win instead. Here we go:
Actor in a leading role: Nominations
Timothée Chalamet: Marty Supreme
Leonardo DiCaprio: One Battle After Another
Ethan Hawke: Blue Moon
Michael B. Jordan: Sinners
Wagner Moura: The Secret Agent
Who will win: Two weeks ago, I would have said Chalamet had this one won, but he’s been a desperate weirdo in his press tour, so now I think Jordan might take it. He has momentum right now.
Who should win: Each one of these performances is an all-timer, but Hawke’s work broke my heart and DiCaprio proved once again that he gets better with every performance. Still, I would be so happy for Jordan to take it.
Actor in a supporting role
Benicio del Toro: One Battle After Another
Jacob Elordi: Frankenstein
Delroy Lindo: Sinners
Sean Penn: One Battle After Another
Stellan Skarsgård: Sentimental Value
Who will win: This is a tough one, but I think Skarsgård might take it, with Penn as a possible upset.
Who should win: Del Toro’s character in One Battle After Another is just so iconic, but Lindo crafts such a delicately beautiful performance in Sinners. See what I mean? This year was filled with so much good work.
Actress in a leading role
Jessie Buckley: Hamnet
Rose Byrne: If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Kate Hudson: Song Sung Blue
Renate Reinsve: Sentimental Value
Emma Stone: Bugonia
Who will win: Buckley has this on lock. She’s been a chameleonic actress for years and is finally getting the attention she has earned.
Who should win: As happy as I would be for Buckley to get this, I found Byrne’s devastating and complex work in If I Had Legs I’d Kick You the most remarkable. She added so much humanity to a character that could have been unbearable.
Actress in a supporting role
Elle Fanning: Sentimental Value
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas: Sentimental Value
Amy Madigan: Weapons
Wunmi Mosaku: Sinners
Teyana Taylor: One Battle After Another
Who will win: I think Taylor shows up in One Battle After Another like an immediate movie star. She’s a force of nature who is impossible to look away from.
Who should win: As much as I love Madigan’s creepily hilarious turn in Weapons, I think Taylor lights the screen on fire in just a few short minutes.
Cinematography
Dan Laustsen: Frankenstein
Darius Khondji: Marty Supreme
Michael Bauman: One Battle After Another
Autumn Durald Arkapaw: Sinners
Adolpho Veloso: Train Dreams
Who will win: Arkapaw is a genius who must be protected at all costs. Her work on Sinners is one of the highlights of the entire film.
Who should win: Arkapaw should win, but if Veloso won for his gorgeous summoning of the ghosts of the Pacific Northwest in Train Dreams, I would still be very happy.
Directing
Chloé Zhao: Hamnet
Josh Safdie: Marty Supreme
Paul Thomas Anderson: One Battle After Another
Joachim Trier: Sentimental Value
Ryan Coogler: Sinners
Who will win: This is a race between Coogler and Anderson. I think Anderson might take it only because he made a politically charged action comedy that hit at the perfect time—and made it look easy.
Who should win: I like One Battle After Another just slightly more as a film, but I’m rooting for Coogler and Sinners as a work of art because it’s what my heart tells me to do.
Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
Will Tracy: Bugonia
Guillermo del Toro: Frankenstein
Chloé Zhao, Maggie O’Farrell: Hamnet
Paul Thomas Anderson: One Battle After Another
Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar: Train Dreams
Who will win: Anderson constructed One Battle After Another as a timely political thriller, a stoner comedy and a buddy action movie simultaneously. His work here won’t be fully appreciated for a few decades, even if he wins the Oscar.
Who should win: Anderson should win, but the screenplay for Train Dreams is one of the most beautiful pieces of writing of the last 25 years. It should also win. Can they both win, please?
Writing (Original Screenplay)
Robert Kaplow: Blue Moon
Jafar Panahi; script collaborators—Nader Saïvar, Shadmehr Rastin, Mehdi Mahmoudian: It Was Just an Accident
Ronald Bronstein, Josh Safdie: Marty Supreme
Eskil Vogt, Joachim Trier: Sentimental Value
Ryan Coogler: Sinners
Who will win: This one is impossible to guess. Sentimental Value and Sinners have momentum, and Marty Supreme has the critical love. I think Sinners takes it in an upset.
Who should win: The script for Blue Moon absolutely sings with brilliance and humor, but Sinners should win simply for how beautifully Coogler blends genres and layers in a hundred years of thematic power, depth and rage.
Best Picture
Bugonia: Ed Guiney, Andrew Lowe, Yorgos Lanthimos, Emma Stone and Lars Knudsen, producers
F1: Chad Oman, Brad Pitt, Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Joseph Kosinski and Jerry Bruckheimer, producers
Frankenstein: Guillermo del Toro, J. Miles Dale and Scott Stuber, producers
Hamnet: Liza Marshall, Pippa Harris, Nicolas Gonda, Steven Spielberg and Sam Mendes, producers
Marty Supreme: Eli Bush, Ronald Bronstein, Josh Safdie, Anthony Katagas and Timothée Chalamet, producers
One Battle After Another: Adam Somner, Sara Murphy and Paul Thomas Anderson, producers
The Secret Agent: Emilie Lesclaux, producer
Sentimental Value: Maria Ekerhovd and Andrea Berentsen Ottmar, producers
Sinners: Zinzi Coogler, Sev Ohanian and Ryan Coogler, producers
Train Dreams: Marissa McMahon, Teddy Schwarzman, Will Janowitz, Ashley Schlaifer and Michael Heimler, producers
Who will win: This is a race between One Battle After Another and Sinners (with The Secret Agent and Sentimental Value acting as possible spoilers). One Battle After Another will win it because of its timeliness. The only reason Sinners won’t win is that the Academy historically doesn’t award horror movies.
Who should win: The more I watch these movies over and over, I think Train Dreams is my favorite. Not necessarily the best, but I like what it says about life and existence. It’s sweetly and gently profound in ways I’m not sure many movies have the patience to attempt.
